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JORDAN
[size=30]How the United tate hould Help Protect Jordan from the Chao[/size]
[size=30]Next Door[/size]
David chenker
Wedneda, Feruar 22, 2017, 10:13 AM
The Middle at ha een engulfed in chao. Longtanding
authoritarian regime have een toppled; till other dictator
have killed hundred of thouand and diplaced million in an
effort to retain power. Iran’ hiite prox militia have pread
throughout the region, fueling ectarianim and roadening the
appeal of nihilitic unni Ilamit jihadit group. Meanwhile,
audi Araia and gpt—two longtanding pillar of
Wahington’ trategic architecture in the Middle at—have
een haken economic troule.
Through it all, the moderate, pro-Wet kingdom of Jordan ha endured a an iland of relative
tailit. While incredil pereverant, the kingdom i not immune to the regional tumult. Jordan
toda face enormou economic and ecurit challenge aggravated the arrival of around a
million rian refugee. Yet aed on how well the kingdom ha thu far coped with adverit,
there ha een a dangerou tendenc to view it a a kind of new parta, a mall ut militaril
advanced tate with eemingl endle reilience. It would e a mitake to take the tailit of
Jordan for granted.
Maintaining the tailit of Jordan hould e an urgent concern for U.. policmaker. Not onl i
the tate a peace partner with Irael, it i a confederate in the attle of idea againt Ilamit
extremim and a force for regional moderation. It i alo a vital all in the militar ½ght againt the
Ilamic tate and the principal ae of U.. air operation againt the group in ria. While rolling
ack Ilamic tate force i important, the endurance of the kingdom—one of the few remaining
pro-Wet, relativel moderate and tolerant Ara tate—i crucial. The lo of thi U..-allied
monarch would e a igni½cant etack for U.. interet in the Middle at. ecuring Jordan from
ria' pillover hould e a top polic priorit of the Trump adminitration’ Middle at polic.
Omphalo: Middle at Con¾ict in Perpective
ver ince Jordan gained it independence in 1946, oerver have een predicting the tate’
imminent collape. For ear, the primar detailization driver emanated from diviion etween
Jordan’ indigenou trial-origin national—the o-called “at anker”—and it Wet anker,
Paletinian-origin citizen. More recentl, acklah againt of½cial corruption and frutration with
the feele econom have moilized egment of the population againt the palace. In the lat few
ear, pillover from ria—in particular the arrival of a man a 1.4 million refugee, according to
the Jordanian government—ha teted the durailit of the kingdom.
The war in ria i having a prof
ound impact on Jordan. According to the government’ 2016
cenu
, rian now comprie 13.28 percent of Jordan’ population. eond the ocial dilocation
aociated with the addition of uch a large contingent of refugee, the rian are having a
igni½cant effect on the econom and national de½cit. Wore, militant Ilamit ideolog from next
door—though not necearil from the refugee population—i eeping acro the order into the
kingdom. Accordingl, terrorim i ecoming an increaingl dif½cult challenge.
Jordan’ econom ha never een rout. Indeed, the kingdom ha run de½cit for more than half a
centur. ince 2011 and the tart of the Ara upriing, however, the econom ha taken a marked
turn for the wore. After the gptian revolution, diruption of the ga pipeline through the inai
deert to Jordan forced the kingdom to ½ll the gap with more expenive crude oil, reulting in a $3
illion (or 30 percent) udget de½cit
in 2013. More recentl, order cloure with Iraq and ria
have undercut Jordanian export, and the war next door have cared awa viitor, igni½cantl
reducing tourit revenue
. The arrival of o man rian refugee ha onl compounded the
kingdom’ ½cal prolem.
Depite adverit, the kingdom toda i relativel tale, and doing well—epeciall compared with
man of it neighor. There i no guarantee, however, that Jordan will continue to endure regional
preure uncathed, epeciall if pillover from the ria war continue.
The challenge faced the kingdom are divere ut can e roadl categorized into three related
aket: ecurit, refugee, and the econom Taken eparatel, each of thee iue repreent a
prolem for Amman; together, if left to feter, thee challenge could morph into a perfect torm.
ecurit
Jordan’ ecurit apparatu ha long een conidered the gold tandard in the Ara world. For
decade, the militar and the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) have proved competent,
committed, and effective in protecting the kingdom from enemie foreign and dometic. ix ear
into the war in neighoring ria, however, pillover i undermining ecurit.
ituation Report
While the population pike caued refugee i a challenge for the GID, thee rian are not an
immediate threat. In½ltration of militant Ilamit from acro the order—the purview of the
militar and order guard—i likewie not an imminent danger to ecurit in the kingdom. Intead,
the primar threat appear to e creeping radicalization: the movement of radical Ilamit
ideolog from ria into Jordan.
The war in ria—in which the nominall hiite Aad regime and it Iranian patron have een
reponile, directl or indirectl, for the killing of nearl half a million people, motl unni
Mulim—ha enraged Jordan’ overwhelmingl unni population. ome 2,500 Jordanian national
are reportedl participating in the jihad in ria, ½ghting alongide the Ilamic tate and al-Qaeda
af½liate, among other group. Meanwhile, anecdotall at leat, increaing numer of Jordanian
appear to e moving toward ala½m. Clearl, ome are alo elf-radicalizing.
In the pat ear, for example, more U.. oldier and contractor have een killed in o-called
"green on lue" attack in Jordan than in Afghanitan. Mot recentl, thi pat Novemer, three U..
pecial Force troop were killed
a Jordanian arm of½cer at the entrance to King Faial Air ae
in the countr’ outh. Almot a ear earlier, two U.. trainer—a well a two outh African and
two Jordanian—were killed a rogue of½cer at a police training facilit. It wa later dicovered
that the murder weapon the gunman ued in that attack had een provided to the GID the CIA
to arm moderate rian reel. Thi particular AK-47 ri¾e—and thouand of other—never
reached it intended detination. According to the
New York Time
, the gun were old
on the lack
market.
In the pat ear...more U.. oldier and contractor have een killed in o-called "green on
lue" attack in Jordan than in Afghanitan.
ut the ecurit prolem go eond the killing of American. Twice in June 2016, Jordanian
ecurit intallation were compromied terrorit. On June 6, a lone attacker hot and killed
½ve of½cer in a GID facilit in aqaa, twent mile north of Amman. Week later, an Ilamic tate
militant detonated a car om at an iolated Jordanian order pot on the Iraqi-rian frontier in
Rukan, killing ix oldier. On oth occaion, Jordanian of½cer were reportedl aleep on guard
dut.
Adding to the concern, jut month earlier, on March 2, 2016, it took Jordan’ et commando
unit, the 71t Counterterrorim attalion, more than 12 hour to defeat an iolated cell
of even I
terrorit in the northern town of Irid. The terrorit were eventuall killed, ut o too wa the
head of the CT unit, in an operation aid to have een everel hampered reakdown in
communication.
Thee mitep
, ome a, led to a maive hakeup of the Jordan Armed Force General
Headquarter lat fall—the imultaneou dimial of ix general taff of½cer. While Jordan’
ecurit apparatu remain among the et in the region, thi overhaul would appear to re¾ect a
lack of con½dence from the palace, aed on the recent underperformance of thee ervice.
peculation in Jordan aout the dimial ha een intene ut quiet: in late No
vemer, militar
court iued a an
on pulihing an new related to the armed force.
A month later in Decemer 2016, an Ilamic tate attack and the uequent manhunt in the
outhern town of Karak killed 17 people and injured 34 other. YouTue video
taken during the
incident howed police of½cer houting from the window of the local tation houe, pleading
with local citizen for more weapon and ammunition. Interior Miniter alameh Hammad
declared the ecurit operation in Kerak a "ucce," ut in mid-Januar Hammad wa removed
from hi pot in a cainet rehuf¾e.
Refugee
According to the Of½ce of the U.N. High Commiioner for Refugee (UNHCR), 656,000 rian
refugee are currentl reiding in Jordan. Amman, which ha in the pat demontrated a penchant
for exaggeration on thee matter, a the kingdom i hoting 1.4 million rian. Regardle of
the actual numer, thee exile are having a igni½cant effect on Jordan.
Fewer than 120,000 of thee rian reide in refugee camp; the overwhelming majorit live in
the kingdom’ citie and town. The in¾ux ha increaed demand for houing, raied rent, and
treed the educational tem. ome 145,000 rian tudent now attend Jordanian primar
chool—o man that the kingdom ha added econd hift to accommodate the children. The
refugee crii i alo exacerating Jordan’ acute water hortage. ven efore the refugee arrived,
Jordan wa the third mot water-inecure tate, with mot local receiving water jut once per
week. At the current rate of conumption, ome etimate
indicate that it freh water uppl will
e exhauted 2060.
The refugee are clearl taxing Jordan’ carce reource, including the tate udget. According to
the World ank
, the cot the kingdom over $2.5 illion a ear—equivalent to nearl 18 percent of
it annual udget. In 2016, the kingdom incurred a de½cit of nearl $1.3 illion on it $12 illion in
udgeted expenditure, in large part ecaue of thee refugee. Overall, the General udget
Department reported that Jordan would accrue $1.8 illion of new det in 2016.
The refugee crii i alo exacerating Jordan’ acute water hortage...At the current rate
of conumption, ome etimate indicate that it freh water uppl will e exhauted
2060.
To e ure, the refugee are a ½nancial urden. ven with the hopitalit and largee of Jordan and
the aitance provided the UNHCR, life in the kingdom remain an exitence of quiet
deperation for the vat majorit of thee rian. According to the United Nation, 90 percent of
regitered rian refugee in uran area are living elow the national povert line
. Throughout
the kingdom, two-third of rian refugee are impoverihed—and thi ½gure would likel e even
higher if non-regitered rian, who receive no funding from international organization, were
taken into account. While man rian in Jordan are working, opportunitie have een omewhat
limited. If thee refugee remain in Jordan inde½nitel, the could ecome a permanent undercla
that i epeciall vulnerale to radicalization.
conom and Unemploment
ince 2010, Jordan ha een it det-to-GDP ratio increae from 67 to nearl 90 percent toda. To
cover the hortfall, the kingdom ha taken loan that will cot over $1 illion to ervice thi ear
alone—nearl 6.5 percent of the total annual udget. Thee high recurrent annual expenditure, a
well a the growing national det, are a long-term concern for the kingdom’ economic well-eing.
The more immediate prolem for Jordan in term of tailit, however, i unemploment.
Workforce participation in Jordan i extremel low. According to the World ank, onl 36 percent
of all Jordanian of working age participate in the workforce. Onl 15 percent of women work—
depite the fact that women account for ix of ever 10 college graduate. Among thi alread
anemic 36 percent, unemploment tand at almot 15 percent, with jolene among outh
approaching a tunning 40 percent. Overall, ome 16 percent of college graduate are unemploed.
Jordan’ dif½cultie in creating good jo are driving man of it educated aroad. Half of Jordan’
engineer work in the Gulf. Accordingl, expatriate remittance accounted for more than 14
percent of GDP in 2015, ut thi wa a decline from the previou ear, when remittance equated to
nearl 18 percent. hould low oil price perit, thi critical ource of revenue will likel continue
to fall off.
ven a Jordanian are truggling to ½nd work, the laor market for foreign national i ooming.
According to the Jordanian cenu, 635,000 gptian expatriate are currentl working in the
kingdom. Qualifing Indutrial Zone factorie, etalihed after the 1994 peace treat with Irael
to oot emploment in Jordan allowing thee area to ell their ware dut-free in the United
tate, are taffed angladehi worker. The dometic laor ector in the kingdom i cornered
outh Aian women.
Among Jordan’ at anker, there i a decided preference for pulic-ector emploment, which
offer jo ecurit, relativel lax performance and attendance tandard, low retirement age,
penion, and uidie. While the perquiite are igni½cant, the alarie are tpicall low. The
government i Jordan' leading emploer, reponile for providing 39 percent of all jo. ut the
pulic ector i hrinking, and competition for thee plum lot i ½erce. In 2013, 200,000 college
graduate applied for 6,400 civil ervice jo.
With rian increaingl entering Jordan’ laor market, the unemploment challenge for
Jordanian will no dout e exacerated.
Unemploment and underemploment are a igni½cant ource of frutration in the kingdom. In
ummer 2016, Jordan aw it larget utained protet in ear a one town fort mile outh of
the capital took to the treet for three month to complain aout endemic unemploment.
Depite deep diatifaction with unemploment and the econom
, however, the kingdom ha een
relativel few demontration. At leat in part, it eem Jordanian have limited expreion of
dicontent fearing a decent into ria and Iraq-tle chao. With rian increaingl entering
Jordan’ laor market, the unemploment challenge for Jordanian will no dout e exacerated.
Alread, the war in ria and Iraq—which have diminihed trade and tourim—are having a real
impact on the tandard of living in the kingdom. In 2010—the lat time Jordan’ Department of
tatitic compiled the data—Jordan’ povert rate tood at 14.4 percent. Anecdotall, at leat, the
ituation appear to have gotten wore. Toda, according to the World ank, the tranient povert
rate in the kingdom—meaning the proportion of reident who experience povert for at leat one-
fourth of the ear—i 33 percent. Jordan’ admirale effort at economic reform, which include
uid reduction on taple uch a electricit and ga, ma aggravate thi trend.
Recommendation
ecurit
Continued Cloe ecurit Cooperation:
Jordan toda i Wahington’ mot reliale Ara ecurit
partner. In particular, the kingdom pla an increaingl important role in the U..-led coalition
campaign againt I. While intelligence haring and ecurit cooperation etween Wahington and
Amman i alread exceptionall trong, ome incremental tweak can e made to trengthen the
relationhip and improve Jordan’ capailitie. In 2016, Wahington provided the kingdom with
over $800 million in ecurit aitance and counterterrorim funding. No additional U.. aid i
required, ut to improve Jordan' intelligence-gathering capailitie over outhern ria, the
Trump adminitration hould provide the kingdom with an advanced armed- and urveillance-
drone capailit. Thi would help Jordan etter defend it order and protect the de facto
humanitarian zone it i working to preerve along the frontier in outhwetern ria.
Manage Hazard of U.. Militar Preence:
Regrettal, the recent phenomenon of green-on-lue
killing in the kingdom i likel to continue and could ecome an irritant in the ilateral
relationhip. While little can e done to prevent thee tragedie, the Trump adminitration hould
negotiate permiion for U.. force to carr loaded weapon for peronal protection while on
ae in Jordan. Likewie, ecaue the U.. militar preence i unpopular in Jordan—which ha
conequence for oth Wahington and King Adullah—the adminitration hould endeavor to
downize the footprint if condition allow. Given the challenge poed the Ilamic tate, the
Aad regime, Ruia, and Iran in ria, U.. force ma e in the kingdom for ome time. Aent a
drawdown, the adminitration hould work to enure the deploment i a inconpicuou a
poile.
Countering Jihadit Ideolog:
According to the tate Department, in addition to foreign militar
½nancing (FMF), Wahington provide Jordan with igni½cant Counterterrorim Partnerhip Fund
(CTPF) aitance, a well a peci½c aitance for order ecurit operation. In fact, Jordan i the
larget recipient of CTPF funding. While thi aid i helpful, it doe not uf½cientl addre Jordan’
igget terrorit threat, which i local radicalization. In recent month, the palace ha launched it
½rt real initiative to counter radical Ilamit ideolog in the hope of limiting thi long-term
threat. If requeted, the Trump adminitration hould offer the kingdom technical and ½nancial
aitance through exiting tate Department authoritie to help enure that thi effort ucceed.
nhance order ecurit:
Over the pat decade, the United tate ha provided the kingdom with
hundred of million of dollar to etalih an integrated order ecurit tem. A ear ago,
Jordan aicall cloed it order with ria and i now providing humanitarian aitance to
internall-diplaced communitie on the rian ide of the frontier in the wet. In the eat—near
Rukan, where ome 75,000 diplaced peron are now gathered on the rian ide of the erm and
Ilamic tate force poe a direct threat—Jordan i doing much le. Thee vulnerale rian need
more dependale protection and humanitarian upport. With or without Ruian aent, the
Trump adminitration hould work with it partner in the anti-Ilamic tate coalition to upport
Jordan’ humanitarian uffer zone in ria, providing food and helter to civilian and protecting
them from the Ilamic tate and the Aad regime. Thee zone not onl help internall-diplaced
rian and limit the refugee ¾ow, the enhance the kingdom’ ecurit.
ncourage More Jordanian-Iraeli Cooperation:
One good new tor of 2016 wa the igning of a
$10-illion, 15-ear deal for Irael to provide Jordan with natural ga. Le pulicized, ut more
important, ha een the excellent ongoing trategic cooperation etween Jordan and Irael. King
Adullah and the government of Irael are committed to militar cooperation and intelligence
haring, which greatl ene½t oth tate and Wahington. Given the trong ilateral coordination,
Wahington’ aitance ma not e required. Neverthele, the Trump adminitration could direct
the Defene Department to explore wa of enhancing the alread deep relationhip, including—
ut not limited to—permitting and encouraging more tranfer of Iraeli exce defene article
(DA) to Jordan.
Political acking:
King Adullah i a frequent viitor to Wahington, and upport for Jordan i a
rare ipartian iue on Capitol Hill. The Trump adminitration will undoutedl continue thi
tradition. While materiel U.. aitance to the kingdom i important, the molim of enduring
U.. upport for the Jordanian monarch—which frequentl come under ½re aroad for it
relation with Irael—hould alo e cultivated. To emphaize thi commitment, Preident Trump
hould conider an earl viit to Amman.
mploment
Put Jordanian to Work:
Amman undertand the imperative of ½nding more emploment
opportunitie for it citizen. Indeed, in 2009, the kingdom pulihed “
Jordan’ National
mploment trateg 2011-2020
,” a thoughtful and comprehenive plan to create jo and uild a
modern competitive econom. ut the trateg—which depend on training, expatriate
replacement, international aitance, and heav foreign direct invetment—will take ear to
implement. More prolematic, the plan wa crafted prior to the arrival of hundred of thouand of
rian laorer.
Jordan’ plan need not e crapped, ut the kingdom could ue ome U.. aitance. While the
Trump adminitration i focued on jo creation at home, the tailit of thi ke U.. all hould
pur Wahington to alo encourage ome U.. companie to invet in the kingdom—perhap
through tax incentive. If Jordan requet it, Wahington hould alo ign another loan guarantee.
The United tate ha alread guaranteed three loan to the kingdom valued at $3.75 illion. Given
the regional uncertaint, thee loan are an excellent invetment.
Finall, in it repreentation to audi Araia, the Trump adminitration hould prevail on it Gulf
all to follow through on it Ma 2016 commitment to etalih the
audi-Jordanian Coordination
Council
, a vehicle Jordanian of½cial have aid would “unlock illion of dollar.” igni½cant
audi invetment could timulate Jordan’ tagnant econom, creating thouand of additional
emploment opportunitie.
ncouraging Women’ Participation:
Around eight out of ever 10 women in Jordan do not hold
jo. The taggering underrepreentation of women in the laor force contitute a permanent
drag on the kingdom’ econom. To e ure, Jordan i a ver conervative ociet, o thi prolem
will e dif½cult to overcome. Neverthele, the Trump adminitration can provide ome marginal
aitance. Alread, the United tate ha a $250-million program in Jordan run the Overea
Private Invetment Corporation (OPIC) guaranteeing loan from ank to mall-uine
enterprie, ut onl $87 million ha een diured. ome 16 percent of thee loan have gone to
women-owned enterprie, which i good, ut more can e done. The program hould purue a
more aggreive outreach campaign to pulicize and market it aitance to women. In Jordan—
where women’ participation i an Achille heel of the laor market—microenterprie loan to
women and women-owned enterprie can have a mall ut nonethele igni½cant impact.
Refugee
Improve Condition for Refugee:
Large numer of rian refugee could remain in Jordan for “at
leat 17 ear,” according to King Adullah, and even after the war end, man ma never return
home. Depite Amman’ migiving, the economic and ocial integration of thee refugee i
critical to the ucce of the kingdom’ effort to prevent radicalization. It i alo important to
dicourage refugee from moving to third countrie. While jo are carce in Jordan, rian are
known for eing highl entrepreneurial, o more rian participation in Jordan’ workforce ma
actuall help grow the tate’ anemic econom. Nearl 40,000 rian have alread een iued
permit to work in Jordan. The United tate hould encourage Jordan to iue igni½cantl more
permit o thee rian can work legall, taking the place of other expatriate laorer.
Prioritize Financial upport for Refugee:
ince 2012, Wahington ha provided nearl $800
million to upport rian refugee in Jordan. While thi aitance i utantial, it remain
inuf½cient. Leanon—which admittedl ha more refugee than the kingdom, ut i trategicall
le important to Wahington—receive one-third more aitance. Aent additional U.. or
international funding for Jordan, the Trump adminitration hould conider reprioritizing it
carce aid dollar. Wahington hould alo pre uropean and Ara allie (audi Araia, the
United Ara mirate, and Kuwait) to temporaril add an annual udget upport component of $1
illion to exiting infratructure invetment project in the kingdom. Thi upport would help
Jordan reduce it recurrent udget de½cit caued in large part thee refugee
David chenker is the Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Ara Politics at
The Washington Institute for Near ast Polic..
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/opeds/Schenker20170222-Lawfare-Jordan-Transition.pdf 
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